Post by FaithWalker on Dec 1, 2008 8:35:22 GMT -6
The death toll in Zimbabwe’s cholera epidemic will soar, according to NGOs which, after upgrading their models, now expect 60000 infections by March.
And, as Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe continues to refuse to declare a national emergency, at least one new study predicts that as many as 10000 could die.
So far, 412 deaths and 9908 infections have been officially recorded by the World Health Organisation, since cholera first appeared near Harare in August.
Despite claims from the Mugabe government that cholera deaths had already peaked, senior NGO officials told the Sunday Times that heavy December rains, combined with low nutrition levels and a complete breakdown of government services, would mean a full-scale humanitarian disaster will strike in the months to come.
One key disaster-response official, who asked not to be identified for fear of government obstruction, said: “It will certainly get a lot worse, in terms of prevalence. We have now adopted 60000 as the total cases we can expect. The only question is what the case fatality rate will be — something which is normally around 1%, but which will be much higher here. Because MSF (Médecins Sans Frontières — Doctors Without Borders) has been working hard, the institutional fatality rate (in the treatment centres) at the moment is down to 4%, which would mean (2400 deaths). But, when we factor in community deaths, the lack of government response and the rains, I believe we will end up close to the historical rate here, which is 17%. So I fear around 10000 deaths by the end of March.”
He also warned that the epidemic would spread to South Africa “without a doubt” if the borders were not closed.
He said the WHO had also projected 60000 infections in their own new internal model.
Unicef, MSF, German Agro Action and the WHO are leading the response to the crisis in the absence of any substantive government response, and have set up 36 cholera treatment centres around the country.
On Friday, the Red Cross said it was issuing food to hospital staff members, who have gone unpaid for at least 47 days, so they could continue to assist in the clinics.
This week, there were desperate scenes in the hardest hit township of Budiriro, where 400 new cholera cases arrived at the NGO-run treatment centre every day.
One man wearing a blue shirt was ferried into the clinic in a wheelbarrow; his head dangling off the side.
A newly married 28-year-old woman, discharged from the camp due to overcrowding, said: “It was terrible in there. People were sweeping their (faeces) aside on their beds with their own hands so they did not have to lie in it; there was no one to help. There were also not enough stands for the drips, so sick people or their relatives had to hold the drips up with their arms.”
On Friday, the Chinese government announced that it was rushing R5- million worth of cholera vaccines to Zimbabwe to help prevent new infections.
However, Dr Greg Powell, chairman of the Child Protection Society, and a member of the Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights, said: “The problem is that vaccines don’t make a difference in a case like this, so unless the Chinese have a new kind of vaccine, I see no new hope there. The Centres for Disease Control states that the use of vaccines in epidemic situations is useless. The main weapon is water, and the complete collapse in the water system and sewer system means the crisis will inevitably deepen. On top of that, the government has failed even to try to intervene — it really doesn’t care.”
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And, as Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe continues to refuse to declare a national emergency, at least one new study predicts that as many as 10000 could die.
So far, 412 deaths and 9908 infections have been officially recorded by the World Health Organisation, since cholera first appeared near Harare in August.
Despite claims from the Mugabe government that cholera deaths had already peaked, senior NGO officials told the Sunday Times that heavy December rains, combined with low nutrition levels and a complete breakdown of government services, would mean a full-scale humanitarian disaster will strike in the months to come.
One key disaster-response official, who asked not to be identified for fear of government obstruction, said: “It will certainly get a lot worse, in terms of prevalence. We have now adopted 60000 as the total cases we can expect. The only question is what the case fatality rate will be — something which is normally around 1%, but which will be much higher here. Because MSF (Médecins Sans Frontières — Doctors Without Borders) has been working hard, the institutional fatality rate (in the treatment centres) at the moment is down to 4%, which would mean (2400 deaths). But, when we factor in community deaths, the lack of government response and the rains, I believe we will end up close to the historical rate here, which is 17%. So I fear around 10000 deaths by the end of March.”
He also warned that the epidemic would spread to South Africa “without a doubt” if the borders were not closed.
He said the WHO had also projected 60000 infections in their own new internal model.
Unicef, MSF, German Agro Action and the WHO are leading the response to the crisis in the absence of any substantive government response, and have set up 36 cholera treatment centres around the country.
On Friday, the Red Cross said it was issuing food to hospital staff members, who have gone unpaid for at least 47 days, so they could continue to assist in the clinics.
This week, there were desperate scenes in the hardest hit township of Budiriro, where 400 new cholera cases arrived at the NGO-run treatment centre every day.
One man wearing a blue shirt was ferried into the clinic in a wheelbarrow; his head dangling off the side.
A newly married 28-year-old woman, discharged from the camp due to overcrowding, said: “It was terrible in there. People were sweeping their (faeces) aside on their beds with their own hands so they did not have to lie in it; there was no one to help. There were also not enough stands for the drips, so sick people or their relatives had to hold the drips up with their arms.”
On Friday, the Chinese government announced that it was rushing R5- million worth of cholera vaccines to Zimbabwe to help prevent new infections.
However, Dr Greg Powell, chairman of the Child Protection Society, and a member of the Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights, said: “The problem is that vaccines don’t make a difference in a case like this, so unless the Chinese have a new kind of vaccine, I see no new hope there. The Centres for Disease Control states that the use of vaccines in epidemic situations is useless. The main weapon is water, and the complete collapse in the water system and sewer system means the crisis will inevitably deepen. On top of that, the government has failed even to try to intervene — it really doesn’t care.”
Link